World Cup 2026 Group F: Argentina, Tunisia, Iraq and Algeria

The Lusail Stadium on 18 December 2022 hosted one of the great World Cup finals. Argentina and France played out a 3-3 draw across 90 minutes and extra time - France coming back from two goals down to level, Argentina finding a third, France equalizing again deep in extra time - before Argentina held their nerve in the penalty shootout to claim their third World Cup title. If you want to understand the mental strength this Argentina side possesses in a knockout situation, that final is the evidence.

Lionel Messi will be 38 or 39 years old when this tournament begins. The conversation about whether Qatar 2022 would be his last World Cup ran for years before the tournament - and he confounded every prediction by continuing to play at a remarkable level and then winning the thing. Whether 2026 finds him still capable of influencing games at the highest level or whether his pace and mobility have reduced while his footballing intelligence remains elite, his presence changes how opponents approach Argentina entirely. No defender in Group F has the tools to neutralize him by effort alone.

Beyond Messi, the squad has real quality. Julian Alvarez has established himself as a striker who combines relentless work-rate with genuine goal threat and composure under pressure. The midfield has competitive quality and physical presence. The defensive organization under Lionel Scaloni has been the foundation of Argentina's success over recent years - well-positioned, hard to play through quickly, and disciplined in their defensive shape. They are not a team that will be troubled by any side in this group during the normal run of a game.

The honest prediction-pool note about Argentina is that the defending-champion burden tends to matter in the later rounds, not the group stage. No side has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962, and the pressure of being the team everyone wants to knock off tends to accumulate as the tournament progresses. For Group F, put them first and spend your analytical energy on the three positions below.

Algeria's absence from Qatar 2022 was the defining frustration of recent Algerian football. The play-off loss to Cameroon - which went to extra time and was decided by a late goal - ended a strong run of qualification campaigns and left a squad that felt it had more to offer without a stage to show it. The 2026 tournament is where that balance gets settled, and there is a palpable sense in Algerian football that this group has been waiting for this opportunity.

What makes Algeria the most plausible second-place finisher in Group F is the depth of European-level talent running through their squad. The connection between Algeria and French club football is well-established - many key players have grown up in the French system, competed in Ligue 1 and other European leagues, and bring technical standards and tactical awareness you would associate with a competitive European national team. Riyad Mahrez - who spent years at the top of the Premier League and became one of the most recognizable Algerian footballers of his generation - represents the calibre of player this squad has regularly produced. The current side carries that standard.

The challenge for Algeria in Group F is consistency across three games. They will be four years removed from a World Cup by the time the tournament begins, and reacclimating to that level of pressure and intensity is not trivial. Tunisia will provide a genuine test - the two sides know each other well, and North African derbies carry a history and intensity that makes them hard to predict. Iraq, physically direct and motivated by the weight of their occasion, could be awkward if Algeria approach their games with less focus than the matches demand. Algeria are my pick for second, but the pick requires them to be properly on it.

Tunisia know how to survive a group stage. They have been here many times - Qatar 2022, Russia 2018, Germany 2006, Korea-Japan 2002 - and each time they have shown the kind of defensive resilience that makes them difficult opponents for sides that expect to impose themselves quickly. In Qatar, the headline result was a 1-0 win over France in the final group game, with France resting most of their starters having already qualified. The result told you something real about what Tunisia can do when organized and focused: even elite opponents can struggle against them on a given day.

Their style is built around shape, hard work and defensive solidity rather than technical superiority or creative flair. They will not outplay Algeria in possession, and they know it. What they can do is make games difficult, defend deep when required, exploit set-pieces, and keep themselves in matches long enough for a moment of quality - or a mistake from the opposition - to produce a result. The problem for Tunisia in Group F is that this approach works well as a base for not losing, but the side that finishes second needs to win games against opponents at a comparable level.

Tunisia's most realistic path to second place runs through Algeria dropping points - specifically an Algeria side that loses concentration against Iraq or produces a below-par performance in their head-to-head. If that happens, and Tunisia beat Algeria directly, the arithmetic becomes interesting. Their ceiling in Group F is second place; their more probable position is third. The variable is whether they can score goals when the games are tight, and their recent history suggests that remains the hardest thing for this side to do consistently.

The last time Iraq appeared at a World Cup, Diego Maradona had just scored the Hand of God against England and then produced one of the greatest individual goals in the history of the tournament in the same game. The 1986 edition in Mexico was Iraq's only previous World Cup - they went out in the group stage without a win - and forty years is a long time. The generation of players who will wear the Iraqi shirt in 2026 was not alive in 1986. Reaching this tournament represents a genuine footballing achievement for a country that has navigated extraordinary difficulty to sustain a national team programme at all.

Iraq are not simply here to take part. They have been among the more competitive sides in the Asian Football Confederation for a sustained period. Their 2007 AFC Asian Cup win - achieved during a period of severe national difficulty, with the final played at a neutral venue while the country itself was in turmoil - was a result that meant far more to millions of people than a football match normally could. That history of performing under pressure, of finding results when it matters, is part of this squad's DNA.

In Group F, the realistic target for Iraq is third place with enough points to keep alive their chance of advancing as one of the eight best third-placed teams across the 48-team format. A draw against either Algeria or Tunisia would be a result worth noting. Their game against Argentina will almost certainly go the way the form book says it should - but the other two matches are ones Iraq can genuinely compete in. A side making its first World Cup appearance in forty years, with the emotional weight that brings, often produces football in the opening rounds that surprises people who dismiss them on paper.